As we approach the holiday season this year, we should keep in mind a new study released last month warns that 42% of Americans could be obese by 2030 (up from 36% in 2010) and 11% could be severely obese, which means about 100 pounds overweight (vs. 6% in 2010). The study, done by the Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation projects that in every state the rate of obesity could reach 42% and in thirteen states, that number could exceed 60% of the population. Mississippi, which currently leads the nation in obesity rates, could have as many as 2/3 of its population obese by 2030. At the other extreme is Colorado, which has the lowest rate today (21%) and still could have the lowest rate in 2030.

As we debate the cost and remedies for health care in the U.S. as a major issue in the 2012 Presidential election, we should all remember that the extra weight we carry as a nation takes a significant toll on our collective health. It increases the risks of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, many types of cancer, sleep apnea and other chronic illnesses. For example, we could be facing as many as 8 million new cases of diabetes a year (compared with 2 million new cases a year now) or 7 million new cases of chronic heart disease and stroke every year compared with 1.3 million new cases a year now. According to the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, if 42% of Americans are obese by 2030, this would add almost $66 billion a year to our health care costs or almost $1.2 TRILLION by 2030.

Obesity is defined as having a body mass index (BMI) over 30. Overweight means a BMI of 25-30. BMI can be calculated online quite easily and considers the ratio of your weight to your height.

There are a number of strategies available to us that can help us to fight obesity at the individual level, including:

1. Following a low-calorie, low-fat diet
2. Keeping track of food intake
3. Counting calories, carbs or fat grams or using a commercial weight-loss program to track food intake
4. Walking about an hour a day or burning the same calories doing other physical activities
5. Eating breakfast regularly, including whole grains and low-fat dairy products
6. Limiting eating out to no more than 3 times a week and fast food to less than once a week
7. Watching fewer than 10 hours of TV a week
8. Weighing yourself at least once a week

And so, as we approach the holidays and all the meals and parties associated with them, remember the simple formula: eat less and exercise more. Our lives are at stake!

Feel free to pass this issue of the Goldhaber Warnings Report on to any friend or colleague.